bangla news paper: Ending Of Uk Flood Insurance Agreement In 2013

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Ending Of Uk Flood Insurance Agreement In 2013 Are flooded houses flooding the market ? Rate Topic:

#1 ? 15stiftgasse?

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Joined: 02-March 12

Posted 30 March 2012 - 02:19 PM

The Statement of Principles on the Provision of Flood Insurance between HM Govt. and the Assocn. of British Insurers comes to an end in 2013.

Having sold our house prior to moving away from our home town in the Yorkshire, I still regularly keep an eye on Rightmove to see what?s going for what in our former town.

Recently, since the recent widespread publicity regarding the ending of the flood insurance agreement next year, I can?t help but notice a surge in properties coming onto the market in local villages severely affected by the 2007 flooding - presumably to offload now whilst there is still time.

Has anyone else noticed this in their area ????????

#2 ? Redcellar?

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Posted 30 March 2012 - 06:36 PM

View Post 15stiftgasse, on 30 March 2012 - 02:19 PM, said:

The Statement of Principles on the Provision of Flood Insurance between HM Govt. and the Assocn. of British Insurers comes to an end in 2013.

Having sold our house prior to moving away from our home town in the Yorkshire, I still regularly keep an eye on Rightmove to see what?s going for what in our former town.

Has anyone else noticed this in their area ????????

If it continues the way its heading then there will be hundreds of thousands of homes that you couldn't get a mortgage for.
Bit of a problem for house price increases.

Personally, I wouldn't go near an at risk home anyway. Why would you want to live in a high flood risk area anyway? So what if you're insured, you still lose everything personal.

EDIT: should add, my rented flat is in a flood risk area and I struggled with one insurer to get contents insurance. I live on the first floor :rolleyes:

After pointing out that I also live on the edge of a hill and that if the dam burst that presents the threat, and my place 'was' flooded then hundreds of thousands of people would be dead and the NW of England would be a total disaster zone ---- well they gave in and adjusted the quote.

This post has been edited by Redcellar: 30 March 2012 - 06:39 PM

Allegedly.

#3 ? HPC=dream?

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Posted 30 March 2012 - 08:38 PM

View Post Redcellar, on 30 March 2012 - 06:36 PM, said:

If it continues the way its heading then there will be hundreds of thousands of homes that you couldn't get a mortgage for.
Bit of a problem for house price increases.

Personally, I wouldn't go near an at risk home anyway. Why would you want to live in a high flood risk area anyway? So what if you're insured, you still lose everything personal.

EDIT: should add, my rented flat is in a flood risk area and I struggled with one insurer to get contents insurance. I live on the first floor

After pointing out that I also live on the edge of a hill and that if the dam burst that presents the threat, and my place 'was' flooded then hundreds of thousands of people would be dead and the NW of England would be a total disaster zone ---- well they gave in and adjusted the quote.

Thats because they still provide alternative accomodation cover under contents insurance so even if you stuff inst damaged they may have to pay to re-house you.

#4 ? WSG?

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Posted 30 March 2012 - 09:25 PM

If insurance is readily available for people who live in flood plains, then people will build more houses on flood plains

Moral hazard

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#5 ? Monkey?

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Posted 30 March 2012 - 10:27 PM

View Post Redcellar, on 30 March 2012 - 06:36 PM, said:

EDIT: should add, my rented flat is in a flood risk area and I struggled with one insurer to get contents insurance. I live on the first floor :rolleyes:

i live 100 yards from the Solent, and i also had issues getting a quote, if the solent flooded and my house flooded there would be bigger problems, like the fact we would have lost the Isle of wight, but all they saw was i was 100 yards from water

#6 ? The Ayatollah Buggeri?

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Posted 30 March 2012 - 11:58 PM

View Post Redcellar, on 30 March 2012 - 06:36 PM, said:

Bit of a problem for house price increases.

If no extension is negotiated, the result will be that the price of uninsurable properties crashes, while that of 'safe' properties (i.e. ones that insurers consider a low enough flood risk to continue insuring) are going to be boosted, especially if there is no significant new building in the safe areas.

This post has been edited by The Ayatollah Buggeri: 30 March 2012 - 11:58 PM

#7 ? mfs1959?

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Posted Yesterday, 03:07 AM

View Post The Ayatollah Buggeri, on 30 March 2012 - 11:58 PM, said:

The extension was negotiated on the basis of Government spending on flood defences in potentially affected areas. That spending has not happened to the extent promised. I cannot see it happening in the current fiscal climate.

#8 ? Venger?

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Posted Yesterday, 04:22 AM

View Post The Ayatollah Buggeri, on 30 March 2012 - 11:58 PM, said:

The banks will probably also have writedowns in the areas insurance isn't available, and have less money to lend. As JD once put it, for every ?1 a bank has on deposit they can lend ?10. For ever ?1 it loses, it has to restrict lending by ?10. Or something like that.

The people living in those areas aren't going to be able to sell for prices they could have at one time sold for, and same for business premises. So the owners there certainly won't be selling for any amount which would position them to push up prices in non flood areas. The price gap for them becomes even wider.

Even ignoring those affected, demand doesn't necessarily mean increase in price when the underlying financial situation means there is less money to extend to push up prices. Banks aren't lending as freely as they used to, people are tapped out, inflation in energy costs hurting. Prices are going down in the safe areas even if insurance is pulled in the risk areas. It could even make the safe areas fall harder in value.

This post has been edited by Venger: Yesterday, 04:22 AM

#9 ? mfs1959?

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Posted Yesterday, 10:11 AM

View Post Venger, on 31 March 2012 - 04:22 AM, said:

Owners of flood affected houses will be forced to stay put - therefore, as you say, prices nearby will be unaffected. The only time the situation might change is when those flood-affected houses eventually come on the market. The supply of lower-priced houses might even depress prices locally as people decide how much personal risk to take in return for a lower outlay The same will apply also to rental rates, but may have an even greater impact as renting would be a shorter-term option.

#10 ? Redcellar?

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Posted Yesterday, 11:00 AM

View Post mfs1959, on 31 March 2012 - 10:11 AM, said:

There will not be a mathematical balance. Prices of un-mortgageable properties would plummet but price increases proportionately in the safe areas is not possible due to lending and money availability issues. Plus as you said, people will be stuck.

This could be a complete game changer and I think insurance companies are betting on gov bailout / help as they know it's a massive deal. They're just going to play stubborn and why not.
What's interesting is the lack of lambasting builders and insurance companies got for a highly subsidised boost to their business. Flood defences cost the tax payer to benefit houses that simply should not have been built.

Allegedly.

#11 ? The Ayatollah Buggeri?

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Posted Yesterday, 12:56 PM

View Post Venger, on 31 March 2012 - 04:22 AM, said:

That prediction assumes that the majority of house purchases are with mortgages. Isn't the proportion of cash sales as the total of residential property transactions (e.g. by BTL-ers and foreign investors) increasing?

#12 ? mfs1959?

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Posted Yesterday, 01:15 PM

View Post The Ayatollah Buggeri, on 31 March 2012 - 12:56 PM, said:

Whilst this point is correct, yet there will be no increase in demand for the houses that are not at risk of flooding. The people who have flood-affected houses are stuck so they are not in the market for the other housing. If they cannot move then, all else being equal - and I know it rarely is, there is no excess demand for the other houses. Plus BTL is usually with an interest-only mortgage; if it were not then the large portfolios we have seen would not exist.

#13 ? The Ayatollah Buggeri?

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Posted Yesterday, 02:10 PM

View Post mfs1959, on 31 March 2012 - 01:15 PM, said:

Whilst this point is correct, yet there will be no increase in demand for the houses that are not at risk of flooding.

There might be, becuase the existing pool of FTB-ers will be chasing a smaller pool of property if a large number of flood-risk homes suddenly become uninsurable (and thus unmortgagable). It depends how big those pools are relative to each other. I suspect that the situation will vary a lot from areas to areas.

Agreed that in the short term the likely result is people staying put, which is potentially bad news if unemployment ticks up in areas with a significant proportion of unsellable homes, i.e. with an immobile population.

#14 ? mfs1959?

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Posted Yesterday, 02:32 PM

View Post The Ayatollah Buggeri, on 31 March 2012 - 02:10 PM, said:

Which is why I said all else being equal. As you acknowledge it will vary by area, but certainly it is impossible to assert conclusively that house prices would rise for other houses in the same area. It is also often the case that flood affected homes would have been built for the 'executive' market rather than for FTBs. Builders had some grandiose schemes for the erstwhile floodplains.

#15 ? Venger?

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Posted Yesterday, 03:02 PM

View Post The Ayatollah Buggeri, on 31 March 2012 - 12:56 PM, said:

No doubt there have been many such cash sales over the boom years, at ever higher prices, pushing house prices up. Are cash buy transactions increasing, I don't know.

Those foreign investor and BTLers who bought for cash. They now own. So do many others with substantial mortgages.

The value of their homes depend on the flow of money and loans for others to buy in the market.

Is there enough foreign cash and BTL cash to keep prices high, buying at high prices when new stock comes on the market? Foreign buyers who do need debt to buy no longer can have anonymity, must pay stamp duty, risk other taxes when buying via an offshore company. That doesn't bode well for the values of all the people who own, even those who bought in cash.

BTL lending criteria is stricter. UKAM has ?77 Billion mortgages in distress on its books, with something like ?22 billion of them BTL mortgages in arrears.

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